Military Analyst Europe Faces An Imminent Threat and This Is What Will Save It

 

In a detailed article published by Foreign Policy, military analyst Garvan Walsh emphasizes the urgency for Europe to develop its own defense system, particularly in the wake of growing divisions with the United States under President Donald Trump’s leadership. Walsh, a former national and international security policy advisor for the UK Conservative Party, has outlined several crucial steps Europe must take to address the rising threats from Russia and the shifting stance of the U.S.

Europe’s Growing Defense Needs

Walsh argues that the situation in Ukraine has exposed the need for a European-led defense strategy. With the new U.S. administration criticizing Ukraine's efforts and hinting at negotiations with Russia without involving Kyiv, it has become clear that Europe cannot rely solely on the U.S. to protect its strategic interests. The emerging differences between Europe and the U.S. necessitate a shift in how Europe approaches its security and defense policies.

This shift does not imply abandoning the U.S., but rather fostering stronger relationships with key factions in the Republican Party, maintaining diplomatic ties, and ensuring Europe’s self-sufficiency in defense matters.

Immediate Steps Europe Must Take

To safeguard its interests against Russian aggression and reduce dependency on the U.S., Walsh stresses several immediate actions:

1. Engaging Ukraine in European Summits
   Europe should fast-track Ukraine’s participation in European summits. By doing so, Europe can demonstrate its commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty and the broader European security framework. This move would underscore the importance of Ukraine in the fight against Russian aggression.

2. Seizing Russian Assets
   Walsh suggests that Europe should act quickly to seize the 150 billion dollars of Russian assets frozen in European banks. These assets can be used as compensation for Ukraine’s war damages and to support the defense industry both in Ukraine and across Europe.

3. Increasing Defense Spending
   Walsh calls for an immediate increase in defense spending, with major European countries raising their defense budgets to 3% of GDP, and planning to raise it to 5% within the next three years. This increased budget is necessary to address the emerging threats and to ensure that Europe can maintain a strong defense posture without relying on the U.S.

4. Nuclear Arsenal Expansion
   Both France and the UK possess nuclear weapons and the technology to increase their arsenals. However, these nations cannot bear the full financial burden of expanding their nuclear capabilities on their own. Walsh argues that larger European countries should share the costs, reinforcing the continent’s ability to deter nuclear threats.

Strengthening Europe's Military Capacity

In addition to financial measures, Walsh highlights the need for Europe to enhance its military capabilities:

• Sweden's Contribution
  Sweden’s fleet of Gripen fighter jets could be an essential asset to Ukraine. Walsh recommends that Sweden send its Gripen jets to Ukraine due to their high combat capabilities and low maintenance costs compared to American F-16s.

• Norway’s Role
  Norway can use its oil wealth to fund the war effort, providing much-needed resources to sustain Europe's military operations against Russia.

• UK’s Military Manufacturing
  The UK must reopen its artillery shell production facilities, which were expected to be operational in 2022. This step is vital for ensuring that Europe has a sufficient supply of essential munitions.

Preparing for Emergencies

Europe must also prepare for the possibility that the U.S. may be distracted by issues in Asia, leaving Europe vulnerable to Russian advances. This could mean a re-evaluation of Europe’s military doctrine, adapting forces for rapid response to contingencies that may arise in the absence of U.S. support.

Speed Is Crucial

Walsh emphasizes that the urgency of these steps cannot be overstated. Europe must act swiftly to bolster its defense capabilities and ensure its stability. Delaying these decisions could risk Europe's security and increase the chances of another European conflict.

In conclusion, Europe is at a critical juncture. To avoid being left vulnerable in the face of Russian aggression and a shifting global power structure, it must act swiftly to secure its future. These actions, including increasing defense spending, engaging Ukraine in European politics, and expanding military production, will be crucial in ensuring that Europe can protect its interests and prevent the outbreak of further conflicts.

For more information, read the full article on Al Jazeera.